Mortgage Market and Rate Forecast – Week of October 27th

by Tyler Osby on October 27, 2008

Market and Rate Watch

Mortgage Market and Rate Watch For Week of October 20th, 2008

What To Watch This Week?

The number one (and most obvious) thing to keep your eye on this week is the reactions to the Fed decision Wednesday.  It is everyone’s expectation that the Fed will cut.  I think the question is how much they will cut.

Remember, Fed Cuts Do NOT Equal Lower Mortgage Rates!

It’s commonly mistaken that mortgage rates move lower when the Fed cuts.  Remember, the Fed Funds Rate (FFR) doesn’t directly correlate to mortgage rates.  In fact, often times mortgage rates move higher upon Fed cuts because of fears of inflation.  Wednesday is likely to be an extremely active day in the market.  Expect big swings both ways in the market.

My ‘prediction’ is that on Wednesday, there may be an hour or so that you’ll be able to lock in a lower rate.  However, long term rates will be moving higher.

Since there’s always a lot going on, I like to pick out the two most likely ‘market moving’ reports each week.  If I had to pick a couple of reports to watch, they would likely be:

  1. Fed Decision – Wednesday – Again, Fed cuts often mean higher mortgage rates.  Perhaps more important than the impact in the Fed Funds Rate is the actual statement that will accompany it.
  2. Core Personal Consumption Index – Friday – This always gives us a great explanation of where costs are headed for consumers.  It also happens to be the Fed’s favorite way to measure inflation.  Remember, higher inflation equals higher mortgage rates.

You Can Stay Updated!

I’ll be following things as they happen with live mortgage bond quotes and do what I can to keep everyone informed through Twitter. My clients always get the advice first, so I’ll try to filter though as quickly as I can.

Here’s this week’s economic calendar:

Economic News Calendar

As a Consumer, How Do You Keep Posted on the News?

I’ll do my best to keep you posted throughout the week via Twitter. If you’re interested in finding out more about what effects mortgage rates and which direction they’re headed, feel free to follow me!

Work With Mortgage Professionals In The Advice Business

It’s important to recognize that advice is extremely valuable when looking for a mortgage. The right advice can literally save you thousands of dollars, while the wrong advice can cost you the same.  Some mortgage professionals really don’t know what mortgage rates are based on, period.  If you want to get the best deal, having a professional that can give you that type of advice is extremely important.

Why Am I Posting A Calendar?

I provide this weekly news update because too often when we’re shopping around, we ask the wrong questions. The first thing you’ve got to have your antenna up on is economic news if you want to have any idea what direction rates are moving.

So You Say, What Are Mortgage Rates Currently?

I get this question all too often. If I’m being fair.. and honest (which is my policy). I would be doing you a huge disservice to just quote a rate.

Truth be told, there are literally 27 different factors that go into a custom rate quote. There are also thousands of programs (constantly changing as well). It’s extremely important that you are educated on what is available and most importantly what is the best mortgage plan for you to personally implement.

It’s natural to have a list of questions. I’d love to help work through them with you and educate you on what you need to know about the mortgage process. I can help with everything from how to pre-qualified to what to do after closing (where I will continue working for you)!

It’s what we do, and it would be my honor to add you to our list of raving fan clients. If you’re currently looking for a mortgage loan or know someone that might have questions about one, please have them contact me. I’d be happy to assist them. It’s literally what I love doing! I promise to take great care.

Original Photo Kudos.

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