Mortgage Market and Rate Forecast – Week of February 2nd, 2009

by Tyler Osby on February 1, 2009

Market and Rate Watch


Is Inflation on the Rise?

On Monday, we will get the details on the Fed’s favorite gauge of inflation, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index, it’s found within the Personal Income report. As I’d mentioned in the recap from last week, the Fed said they believe that “inflation pressures will remain subdued in coming quarters”, so it will be important to see what this report reveals.  Remember — Higher inflation is bad for mortgage rates.  Especially if traders feel like the Fed isn’t going to be proactive to fight it off.

Jobs Could Be a Bloodbath

On Friday, the Labor Department releases their Jobs Report for January. Last month, they reported 524,000 jobs lost during the month of December. The employment environment obviously continues to be shaky, with many major companies such as Home Depot, Caterpillar, Sprint, Farm Bureau Financial Services and Texas Instruments announcing job cuts recently. While all those cuts won’t take place at once, Friday’s number probably won’t be a pretty one.  Prepare for a nasty report.

What to Watch This Week?

Since there’s always a lot going on, I like to pick out the two most likely ‘market moving’ reports each week.  If I had to pick a couple of reports to watch, they would likely be:

  1. Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) – Monday – This is one of the Fed’s favorite gauges on inflation.  The higher it is, the worse it is for mortgage rates.
  2. Jobs Reports- Friday – We’re already expecting this to be an ugly report.  It’s just a matter of how ugly.  Remember, weak numbers are usually good for mortgage rates.

You Can Stay Updated!

I’ll be following things as they happen with live mortgage bond quotes and do what I can to keep everyone informed with live updates through Twitter.

Here’s this week’s economic calendar:

Economic News Calendar

As a Consumer, How Do You Keep Posted on the News?

I’ll do my best to keep you posted throughout the week via Twitter. If you’re interested in finding out more about what effects mortgage rates and which direction they’re headed, feel free to follow me!

Work With Mortgage Professionals In The Advice Business

It’s important to recognize that advice is extremely valuable when looking for a mortgage. The right advice can literally save you thousands of dollars, while the wrong advice can cost you the same.  Some mortgage professionals really don’t know what mortgage rates are based on, period.  If you want to get the best deal, having a professional that can give you that type of advice is extremely important.

Why Am I Posting A Calendar?

I provide this weekly news update because too often when we’re shopping around, we ask the wrong questions. The first thing you’ve got to have your antenna up on is economic news if you want to have any idea what direction rates are moving.

So You Say, What Are Mortgage Rates Currently?

I get this question all too often. If I’m being fair.. and honest (which is my policy). I would be doing you a huge disservice to just quote a rate.

Truth be told, there are literally 27 different factors that go into a custom rate quote. There are also thousands of programs (constantly changing as well). It’s extremely important that you are educated on what is available and most importantly what is the best mortgage plan for you to personally implement.

It’s natural to have a list of questions. I’d love to help work through them with you and educate you on what you need to know about the mortgage process. I can help with everything from how to pre-qualified to what to do after closing (where I will continue working for you)!

It’s what we do, and it would be my honor to add you to our list of raving fan clients. If you’re currently looking for a mortgage loan or know someone that might have questions about one, please have them contact me. I’d be happy to assist them. It’s literally what I love doing! I promise to take great care.

Original Photo Kudos

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