Mortgage Market and Rate Forecast – Week of December 22nd, 2008

by Tyler Osby on December 22, 2008

Market and Rate Watch


It’s Going to Be a Short Week!

This week is trade-shortened and thick with economic data.  In addition to two pieces of housing news and a consumer sentiment survey, we’ll get a look at the Federal Reserve’s preferred Cost of Living index.  All four data points are expected to validate the recession, so don’t expect mortgage rates to move much.  Remember, we already know all of this news.

Instead, the biggest threat to mortgage rates this week is momentum.  If mortgage rates tick higher Monday and Tuesday, expect that to continue Wednesday into the 2:00 P.M. market close and then to resume again Friday.

As a reminder (I hope this isn’t a surprise) markets are closed Thursday for the federal holiday.

What to Watch This Week?

Since there’s always a lot going on, I like to pick out the two most likely ‘market moving’ reports each week.  If I had to pick a couple of reports to watch, they would likely be:

  1. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) – Wednesday – I talk about it all the time.  Inflation.  It’s the enemy of mortgage rates and if this report shows any concerns of inflation, plan on seeing mortgage rates heading higher. With all of the recent talk of ‘deflation’, I doubt this will be a huge market mover, but it has the potential to be.
  2. Jobless Claims – Wednesday – We all know unemployment is on the rise.  The question is how many people lost their job last week?… This report will tell us the initial figures.  The uglier the number, the better for mortgage rates.  I’m not rooting for it though.

You Can Stay Updated!

I’ll be following things as they happen with live mortgage bond quotes and do what I can to keep everyone informed through Twitter. My clients always get the advice first, so I’ll try to filter though as quickly as I can.

Here’s this week’s economic calendar:

Economic News Calendar

As a Consumer, How Do You Keep Posted on the News?

I’ll do my best to keep you posted throughout the week via Twitter. If you’re interested in finding out more about what effects mortgage rates and which direction they’re headed, feel free to follow me!

Work With Mortgage Professionals In The Advice Business

It’s important to recognize that advice is extremely valuable when looking for a mortgage. The right advice can literally save you thousands of dollars, while the wrong advice can cost you the same.  Some mortgage professionals really don’t know what mortgage rates are based on, period.  If you want to get the best deal, having a professional that can give you that type of advice is extremely important.

Why Am I Posting A Calendar?

I provide this weekly news update because too often when we’re shopping around, we ask the wrong questions. The first thing you’ve got to have your antenna up on is economic news if you want to have any idea what direction rates are moving.

So You Say, What Are Mortgage Rates Currently?

I get this question all too often. If I’m being fair.. and honest (which is my policy). I would be doing you a huge disservice to just quote a rate.

Truth be told, there are literally 27 different factors that go into a custom rate quote. There are also thousands of programs (constantly changing as well). It’s extremely important that you are educated on what is available and most importantly what is the best mortgage plan for you to personally implement.

It’s natural to have a list of questions. I’d love to help work through them with you and educate you on what you need to know about the mortgage process. I can help with everything from how to pre-qualified to what to do after closing (where I will continue working for you)!

It’s what we do, and it would be my honor to add you to our list of raving fan clients. If you’re currently looking for a mortgage loan or know someone that might have questions about one, please have them contact me. I’d be happy to assist them. It’s literally what I love doing! I promise to take great care.

Original Photo Kudos.

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