by Tyler Osby on January 27, 2012
Real Estate is Local
After 3 consecutive months of growth, the housing market appears to have eased a bit in December.
According to the National Association of REALTORS®, December’s Pending Home Sales Index slipped 4 percent from the month prior. The index measures the number of homes under contract to sell nationwide, but not yet sold.
Despite falling below its benchmark “100 value”, December’s Pending Home Sales Index is the reading’s second-highest value since April 2010 — the last month of last year’s home buyer tax credit program.
In other words, the housing market continues to show signs of improvement, propelled by low home prices and the cheapest mortgage rates of all-time.
Freddie Mac’s mortgage rate survey put the 30-year fixed rate mortgage at an average of 3.96% in December — a 75-basis point improvement from December 2010. This helps to make homes more affordable nationwide.
Regional Home Sales Index varied :
- Northeast Region: -3.1 percent from November 2011
- Midwest Region : +4.0 percent from November 2011
- South Region : -2.6 percent from November 2011
- West Region : -11.0 percent from November 2011
But even regional data is only so helpful. Like everything in real estate, data must be local to be relevant.
Throughout the West Region, for example, the U.S. region in which pending home sales fell the most, several states must have performed better than the regional average. And, undoubtedly, there were cities, towns, and neighborhoods that experienced marked market growth.
Unfortunately, the Pending Home Sales Index can’t capture that data. Nor can it identify the markets in which home sales suffered.
For today’s Urbandale home buyers and sellers, therefore, it’s important to understand your local market and the drivers of local activity. Reports like the Pending Home Sales Index can paint a broad picture U.S. housing but for data that matters to you, you’ll want to look local.
Tyler Osby is an active loan officer. You can ask him questions by emailing him at tyler@tylerosbyteam.com or calling 515-257-6729. Tyler is also on Twitter talking about the mortgage market at @TylerOsby.
by Tyler Osby on January 25, 2012
Fed Funds Rate to Remain Unchanged
Today, the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee voted to leave the Fed Funds Rate unchanged within its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent.
The Fed Funds Rate has been near zero percent since December 2008.
For the third consecutive month, the Fed Funds Rate vote was nearly unanimous. Just one FOMC member dissented in the 9-1 vote, objecting only to the language used in the Fed’s official statement.
In its press release, the Federal Reserve noted that the the U.S. economy has “expanding moderately” since its last meeting in December 2011, adding that the growth is occurring despite “slowing in global growth” — a reference to ongoing economic uncertainty within the Eurozone.
The Federal Reserve expects moderate economic expansion through the next few quarters but is wary of “strains” from global financial markets, and these three threats to the U.S. economy :
- The housing sector remains “depressed”
- The unemployment rate remains “elevated”
- Fixed business investment has “slowed”
Next Meeting Slated for March 13, 2012
On the positive side, the FOMC said that household spending is rising and inflation remains in-check. The group also believes that employment will gradually improve nationwide going forward.
The Federal Reserve neither introduced new economic stimulus, nor discontinued existing market programs.
Immediately following the FOMC’s statement, mortgage markets rallied, pressuring mortgage rates to fall in and around Des Moines.
Mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and, for homeowners willing to pay points plus closing costs, conventional, 30-year fixed rate mortgages can be locked at below 4 percent. If you’re in the process of buying or refinancing a home in Iowa , it’s a good time to lock a mortgage rate with your lender.
The FOMC’s next scheduled meeting is a one-day event slated for March 13, 2012.
Tyler Osby is an active loan officer. You can ask him questions by emailing him at tyler@tylerosbyteam.com or calling 515-257-6729. Tyler is also on Twitter talking about the mortgage market at @TylerOsby.
by Tyler Osby on January 25, 2012
First of 8 Scheduled Meetings of 2012
The Federal Open Market Committee adjourns from a scheduled 2-day meeting today, its first of 8 scheduled meetings this year.
The FOMC is a designated, rotating, 12-person committee within the Federal Reserve, led by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Members of the FOMC sub-committee are the voting members of the Federal Reserve; the ones that ultimately determine U.S. monetary policy.
The most well-known Federal Reserve monetary policy tool is the central bank’s Fed Funds Rate. The Fed Funds Rate is the prescribed interest rate at which banks borrow money from each other for a period of one night.
The Fed Funds Rate can only be changed by FOMC vote.
For home buyers and would-be refinancing households in Urbandale , it’s important to recognize that the Fed Funds Rate is an interest rate separate and distinct from “mortgage rates”. Mortgage rates are not voted upon by the Federal Reserve. Rather, mortgage rates are based on the price of mortgage-backed bonds, a security bought and sold among investors.
Historically, there is little correlation between the Fed Funds Rates and 30-year fixed rate mortgage rates throughout Iowa. Going back 20 years, the benchmark rates have been separated by as much as 5.29% and have been as near as 0.52%.
The spread has even gone negative, most recently in 1979 and 1981 — a period marked by high inflation.
Fed Outlook on U.S. Economy will Determine Rise or Fall of Rates
Today, the separation between the Fed Funds Rate and the average, 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is roughly 3.60%. Beginning at 12:30 PM ET, however, that spread is expected to change. The FOMC will make its statement to the press at that time, and will release its quarterly forecast to the markets.
As Wall Street reacts to the Fed’s press release and projections, mortgage rates will move.
Investors expect the Fed to vote the Fed Funds Rate unchanged from its current range near 0.000 percent, but are unsure of how the Fed will characterize the U.S. economy. If the Fed speaks optimistically on the economy, stock markets should rise and mortgage bonds should fall, driving mortgage rates higher.
Conversely, if the Fed shows concern for future economic growth, mortgage rates should drop. Either way, today figures to be volatile one for mortgage markets.
When mortgage markets get volatile, the safe play as a rate shopper is to lock your mortgage rate immediately. There too much risk in floating.
Tyler Osby is an active loan officer. You can ask him questions by emailing him at tyler@tylerosbyteam.com or calling 515-257-6729. Tyler is also on Twitter talking about the mortgage market at @TylerOsby.
by Tyler Osby on January 24, 2012
Housing Marking Carrying 2011 Momentum into 2012
According to data from the National Association of REALTORS®, on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis, December’s Existing Home Sales climbed by 120,00 units overall from the month prior on its way to an 11-month high.
An “existing home” is a home that’s been previously occupied; that cannot be considered new construction.
After 4.61 million existing homes were sold in December, there are now just 2.38 million homes for sale nationwide. The last time the national home supply was this sparse was March 2005.
At today’s sales pace, the complete, national home inventory would be exhausted in 6.2 months — the fastest pace since before the recession. A 6.0-month supply is believed to represent a market in balance.
The December Existing Home Sales report contained noteworthy foreclosure and short sale statistics, too :
- Foreclosures sold at an average discount of 22% to market value
- Short sales sold at an average discount of 13% to market value
- Together, foreclosures and short sales accounted for 32% of all home sales
Distressed Homes Remain a Large Part of U.S. Housing Market
Furthermore, in its report, the real estate trade group also noted that one-third of homes under contract to sell nationwide succumbed to contract failure last month. That’s up from 9% one year ago.
Contract failure occurs for a multitude of reasons, most notably homes appraising for less than the purchase price; the buyer’s failure to achieve a mortgage approval; and, insurmountable home inspection issues. December’s high failure rate underscores the importance of getting pre-approved as a buyer, and of buying homes in “good condition”.
For today’s home buyer in Des Moines , December’s Existing Home Sales figures may be construed as a “buy signal”. Home supplies are dropping and buyer demand is rising. This is the basic recipe for higher home prices ahead.
If your 2012 plans call for buying a home, consider that home values throughout Iowa are expected to rise as the year progresses. The best values of the year may be the ones secured this winter.
Tyler Osby is an active loan officer. You can ask him questions by emailing him at tyler@tylerosbyteam.com or calling 515-257-6729. Tyler is also on Twitter talking about the mortgage market at @TylerOsby.
by Tyler Osby on January 23, 2012
Feds 2 Day Meeting Concludes Wednesday
Mortgage rates may rise; the week is anchored by a 2-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Whenever the FOMC meets, mortgage rates can be volatile.
The Ben Bernanke-led FOMC is not expected to raise the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range near 0.000 percent, but it’s not what the Fed does that can change mortgage rates as much as it is what the Fed says.
After its 2-day meeting concludes Wednesday, the FOMC will issue its customary statement to the markets, to be followed by a press conference led by Chairman Bernanke. Wall Street will watch the press release and conference for clues about the Fed’s next steps and its outlook for the U.S. economy.
If the Fed indicates that the economy is growing, mortgage rates in Ankeny are likely to rise. Conversely, if the Fed indicates that the economy is slowing, mortgage rates are likely to fall.
Other factors influencing mortgage rates this week include the President’s annual State of the Union address (Tuesday), the Pending Home Sales Index (Wednesday) and New Homes Sales data for December (Thursday).
Mortgage rates remain low but may not stay that way. If you’re looking for the best rates of the year, this week may be your chance.
Why Am I Posting A Calendar?
I provide this weekly news update because too often when we’re shopping around, we ask the wrong questions. The first thing you’ve got to have your antenna up on is economic news if you want to have any idea what direction rates are moving.
As a Consumer, How Do You Keep Posted on the News?
I’ll do my best to keep you posted throughout the week via Twitter. If you’re interested in finding out more about what effects mortgage rates and which direction they’re headed, feel free to follow me!
Work With Mortgage Professionals In The Advice Business
It’s important to recognize that advice is extremely valuable when looking for a mortgage. The right advice can literally save you thousands of dollars, while the wrong advice can cost you the same. Some mortgage professionals really don’t know what mortgage rates are based on, period. If you want to get the best deal, having a professional that can give you that type of advice is extremely important.
So You Say, What Are Mortgage Rates Currently?
I get this question all too often. If I’m being fair.. and honest (which is my policy). I would be doing you a huge disservice to just quote a rate.
Truth be told, there are literally 27 different factors that go into a custom rate quote. There are also thousands of programs (constantly changing as well). It’s extremely important that you are educated on what is available and most importantly what is the best mortgage plan for you to personally implement.
It’s natural to have a list of questions. I’d love to help work through them with you and educate you on what you need to know about the mortgage process. I can help with everything from how to pre-qualified to what to do after closing (where I will continue working for you)!
It’s what we do, and it would be my honor to add you to our list of raving fan clients. If you’re currently looking for a mortgage loan or know someone that might have questions about one, please have them contact me. I’d be happy to assist them. It’s literally what I love doing! I promise to take great care.
Tyler Osby is an active loan officer. You can ask him questions by emailing him at tyler@tylerosbyteam.com or calling 515-257-6729. Tyler is also on Twitter talking about the mortgage market at @TylerOsby.
Call Tyler at 515-257-6729 
