Bad News for the Economy Leads to Good News for Mortgage Rates

by Tyler Osby on July 6, 2009

It Was a Calm, Short, Holiday Week

Mortgage markets were relatively calm throughout last week’s holiday-shortened trading sessions.  After mortgage rates traded within a tight range between Monday and Wednesday, a weak jobs report helped move rates lower into the weekend.

For the second week in a row, mortgage rates ended the week lower than where they started.

Bad News Is Good News For Mortgage Rates

If it was the expectation of runaway economic growth that fueled the early-June, mortgage rate run-up past 6 percent, it’s the changing of those expectations that helped rates retreat by a 1/2 percent or more since.

Yes, the housing sector continues to post strong numbers. However, employment is showing that it may not rebound as quickly as previously thought and U.S. consumer confidence remains shaken.  The Unemployment Rate rose to its highest levels in 25 years last month and key confidence levels fell.

With negative job growth and falling consumer confidence, it only makes sense that mortgage rates would fall.  Fewer people are working and the public feels a bit uneasy about spending their money.

Specifically, What Did Those Reports Say?

Each week, I put up an economic calendar of news coming out that following week.   Here’s the what actually happened with those reports last week:

Economic News

What Impacts Mortgage Rates?

If you’re looking to purchase or refinance a home, it’s important to know what moves mortgage rates.  There are normally two major things that impact the direction:

  1. Economic News.  (Like the calendar above).
  2. International News. (major events, pending legislation, war related news, etc).
  3. Stock Market. (Money flows from equities (stocks) to bonds when it seeks shelter).

What Are Rates Based On?

It’s been mentioned before, but as a common reminder – mortgage rates are only based on one thing, Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS).  The only way you have access to these is through live bond quotes.

Looking For Mortgage Rates?

If you’re looking for specifically what mortgage rates are doing, I’d be happy to help with a custom rate quote.  Each scenario is different (there are 27 different factors a mortgage rate is determined by).  If you or someone you currently know are looking for a mortgage, I’m here to help!

Information without obligation.  That’s my policy.  If you like what you hear, my team and I would love to help you out with your mortgage!

Leave a Comment

Previous post:

Next post: